March 3, 2023
Dear Leland and Everett,
A hugely popular recent television show is Game of Thrones, set in a fictitious world that roughly resembles the European Middle Ages, but with magic, dragons, and other fictitious creations. The central theme of the show was the struggle of humanity to band together in the face of collective existential threat. The White Walkers were supernatural (undead?) creatures that supposedly last appeared centuries prior, but almost exterminated humanity. As a result, many characters on the show consider the White Walkers merely legend or superstition. Through the course of the show the White Walkers appear north of civilization, gather in increasing numbers, and begin to move down from the north and confront the civilized world, presenting an existential threat to civilization. Jarringly, most of characters in the show continue to ignore the threat, demonstrating increasing stubbornness and willful ignorance as the threat becomes increasingly obvious. The characters are far more focused on fighting amongst themselves for the throne in order to rule the realm. The show thus beautifully highlights an innate human tension: on the one hand we have incentives to band together and resist external threats; on the other hand, we have incentives to compete with each other for power and status. Complicating things, we are a complex, imperfect, diverse species, with blind spots and intellectual limitations.
What I didn’t expect was for the show to become prophetic. I assumed it was artistically pointing out the nuance, complexity, and tension innate to human society. As it turns out, we are increasingly living in a real-world approximation of the show.
One minor difference between currently reality and the show is that we arguably face multiple existential threats all at once. Global warming, geopolitical tension with China, Marxism, Fascism, AI, nuclear war, and capitalism are all considered by some to be existential threats to civilization. Amazingly…they might all be right; I certainly can’t definitively rule out any of the above, and could create plausible scenarios for each.
As in Game of Thrones, American society spends remarkably little time acknowledging and attempting to tackle any of the above. We spend increasing levels of energy infighting over baubles (e.g. the throne), while willfully ignoring the potential existential threats gathering (e.g. the White Walkers).
Collective American behavior appears rather foolish, as we find ways to politicize practically everything we do and focus on smaller and smaller objectives to solve. I’m struck in particular by our lack of ambition given the size and scope of potential challenges upon us. I think there are a few forces at work.
The first is that practically no one alive today has tackled the type of ‘whole-of-society’ challenges we face today. There are very few left of the WWII generation: that generation rallied to overcome the Great Depression, win WWII, and put men in space and on the moon. These were problems that required people and political parties to put aside their differences in order to conquer potentially existential threats (debatable in the case of the space race, though my understanding is that Americans were very worried at the thought of the Soviets ‘controlling’ space). As a result, this was a generation with ambition, confidence, and clarity of purpose. We, by contrast, suffer from a lack of ambition, confidence, and purpose. I think we’re ashamed at our individual and collective weaknesses, but refuse to look them in the mirror: we’d rather find someone else to blame, even if we need to manufacture the enemy, in order to avoid confronting the hard truths of just how small, soft, and weak we’ve become. America in 2023 is the obese man who would rather blame others for all the reasons they overeat and don’t exercise, rather than accept ownership, responsibility, and accountability for their outcomes. Said differently and more succinctly: we’re afraid we can’t do it.
The second challenge I see is related to the first, and it’s an unwillingness to acknowledge the magnitude of the problem(s). Take global warming, for example. Our arguments around global warming tend to oversimplify, forcing tribes into ‘yes’ (global warming is a problem) or ‘no’ (it isn’t) camps. Those camps tend to imply (and I’m oversimplifying) that we should either deindustrialize (in order to reduce greenhouse gas production) or ignore the problem (because it doesn’t exist or is overblown). Almost totally absent from the conversation: what about other countries? America currently represents about a seventh of global CO2 production, and our rates are declining thanks to technological innovation and organic behavioral change. By contrast, China, India, and Russia account for about four-tenths of global CO2 production, and the developing world in general is producing more CO2 as they industrialize. Any honest reckoning of how we will tackle global warming needs to account for the developing world: how will America and it’s developed-world partners help the developing world both grow and flourish economically without burning up the planet? Global warming isn’t an American Republican vs Democrat problem, but a global human problem. Until we are willing to acknowledge the true scope of the problem, we won’t explore the right approaches to tackling the problem. To refer back to my obese example: we have to stop avoiding the scale, or convincing ourselves that it’s broken; we have to accept the whole truth in order to take appropriate action.
The third challenge I see is related to the second, and it’s that our problems are increasingly global in scope, but we don’t have good mechanisms to tackle global problems. Covid in particular exposed this challenge, but so does global warming. Post-WWII international alliances were sufficient for maintaining global geopolitical stability. Today’s problems are increasingly global in scope, for better and worse, and we need global collaboration to tackle those problems.
Exacerbating challenge #3 (let’s call this challenge #4) is that America is no longer global hegemon, but hasn’t fully grasped the new reality. From WWII about 1990, the US and Soviet Union were the two global superpowers. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the US stood alone as a superpower, and dominated global geopolitics for the next ~30 years. Now the developing world (in particular China) have achieved enough global heft to have tilted the scales and (on a relative basis anyway) reshape global politics. Put succinctly: the world will no longer just do what the US says. On the one hand, Americans don’t want the responsibility of serving as global hegemon (again, we’re afraid we’re not up to the task) but simultaneously assume the rest of the world will just do what we want because we tell them to (or because we asked nicely). Global geopolitics are about to get complicated in a way they haven’t been in 30+ years, and Americans have limited experience operating in a multipolar world.
Challenge #5 is related to communication and our individual capacity for worry. I have witnessed and participated in countless conversations where one party states “can you believe x bad people did y awful thing?”, whereby another party counters “well, but the real problem is that a bad people did b awful thing?”. Neither party feels heard, which outrages both. They assume that the other party is dumb, naive, brainwashed, or evil. The truth, I think, is that the parties have different priorities, and a limited capacity for worry and panic. It’s not unreasonable to think global warming is the most important existential threat facing the world today. It’s also not unreasonable to think that geopolitical conflict with China is the most important threat facing Americans today. But something about human thinking and communication styles prevents us from saying “I hear that you are very concerned with global warming. I don’t know as much about it, because I’ve been consumed with concern over China”. Particularly in the early era of social media, we are overwhelmed with scary stuff: scary headlines in the news (as traditional media attempts to keep up with social media for our attention), scary stories shared by our friends, or scary images or videos circulated via social media all overwhelm our capacity for empathy and worry. We shut down when others attempt to introduce a new existential threat: we already have enough to worry about.
The sixth (and for today, final) challenge is related to something I highlighted earlier: our institutions are outdated. We have enormous infrastructure, bureaucracy, and cultural inertia designed to solve old problems. We have very little designed to solve new problems (how to regulate social media? or cryptocurrency? or how to prepare for a world dominated by AI? or how to protect American interests against and increasingly combative China?) The old expertise and bureaucracy doesn’t want to die, and will frantically search about for problems they are still equipped to solve. We will need the discipline and fortitude to shift our attention and resources away from the old problems and bureaucracy and into the new.
We live in challenging times, and my hope is that we learn to accept and embrace the challenges in front of us. I fear that we will try to continue to ignore the challenges, Game 0f Thrones-style, delaying action until it’s too late (or almost too late).
Today’s post is of the “helping you understand the world you inherited” flavor. By the time you read this, you will know how history played out. I hope merely to provide some color regarding how we got there. And if I’m being completely honest, through the process of writing, I hope to clarify the situation in my own head, so that I might figure out how I might be of more help than I have been to date. Wish me luck.
I love you,
Dad